Looking forward to Nov 2010

James Pethokoukis predicts the results of this year's midterm election (I can't believe it's already been more than a year since the last federal elections).

1. Remember this simple formula: Unemployment drives presidential approval numbers, and presidential approval numbers drive midterm election results.

2. President Barack Obama’s approval numbers are hovering just a tick below 50 percent. Since 1962, the average House midterm loss for the president’s party when his approval is sub-50 percent is 41 seats. The GOP needs 40 to take the House.

3. And make no mistake, the December unemployment numbers were bad both economically and politically. The 85,000 job loss was worse than expected and will be played that way the media. The continuation of double-digit unemployment also resonates with voters. And not a in a good way.

4. Then will come the second-take stories that will notice the shrinking labor force, which dropped by nearly 700,000 from November. Had it stayed stable from last month, the jobless rate would have been 10.4 percent. Had it stayed stable since August, the jobless rate would be 11 percent!

5. But wait, there’s more! The U-6 rate rate which combines the basic jobless rate, discouraged workers, part-timers-who-would-rather-be-full-tim ers climbed to 17.3 percent. And the average duration of unemployment rose to a record high 29.1 weeks.

6. Also, there is every indication that as the slowly growing economy eventually draws workers back into the labor force, the jobless rate will creep up to new highs. (Big companies remain cautious about hiring, and small biz remains under pressure due to tight capital markets.) The validity of the Obama recovery plan will seriously be cast in doubt.

7. The sickly labor market will also make it that much harder for the White House and Hill Dems to celebrate what is likely to be a brisk upcoming GDP report in the 4-5 percent range. That seems like an abstract number compared to the unemployment rate.

8. Combine a weak labor market – which may appear to be getting worse to voters – with the moribund housing market and rising gas prices, and you have a toxic triple threat that will be poisonous to Democratic incumbents and further drain Obama’s political capital.

9. Also, watch how these numbers play with Senate and House Dems thinking about resigning like Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan. A big improvement in the jobs numbers might have reassured any worriers that 2010 might not be as tough as some currently think. Now it looks a bit more like the worst fears of Democrats might be realized: losing the House and a half-dozen or more Senate seats.

Item 6 is particularly insightful. Despite the fact that more people will find jobs, the unemployment rate is unlikely to decline significantly anytime soon. The Federal Reserve, in its most recent FOMC minutes, was similarly pessimistic about the medium-term outlook in the labor market.

Save the Press!

Why is this crap newsworthy?

President Barack Obama, family and friends visited sea animals and the beach during their weekend Hawaii vacation activities.

Obama, his daughters and his half-sister spent about an hour Saturday at Sea Life Park, a marine center east of Honolulu in Waimanalo. Sea Life Park has animals including dolphins, sea lions, penguins, stingrays and sea turtles.

Furthermore, why did it make the front page of Google News?

The National Waffle Shortage, a parody

There's a crisis in America. A national waffle shortage plagues the nation. Kellogs, the maker of America's favorite frozen breakfast has been forced to close both of their national Eggo factories and do not expect to produce any more waffles until sometime next year.

In a special address to the nation, President Obama announced the creation of a Strategic Waffle Reserve to address the shortage.

There are those who advocate inaction and a passive response to this challenge. There are naysayers who profess that there are enough waffles to go around. These are falsehoods designed to mislead the American people. How can we leave millions of our children without basic necessities? I cannot imagine Sasha and Melia going to school without their Eggos. Let me be clear: my administration intends to take bold action in response to this threat. I will not allow our national economic recovery to be held hostage by a waffle shortage, nor will I allow our seniors to eat hard, unappetizing generic waffles. I affirm my intention of spreading these waffles around. There are those who offer a false choice between economic growth, and mutual aid and security. There are those who are skeptical of my administration's ability to get anything done. Well, allow me to be clear and frank with the American people: I have a plan.

First, I am announcing the creation of a Strategic Waffle Reserve to stockpile waffles to preclude the possibility of such a devastating shortage in the future. This great nation will never find itself caught unaware ever again.

Second, and with regret, I am announcing the purchase of 80% of Kellogs by the federal government. The American people cannot allow the incompetence and recklessness of a few food executives to devastate the middle class. I will ensure that Kellogs has a quick and painless bankruptcy that will strengthen its ability to waffle and punish its irresponsible creditors. Allow me to be clear: the United States government is not interested in owning food companies.

Third, I am announcing an executive order that will ban the personal production, consumption or ownership of Eggo waffles one year from today. A new federal agency, the Federal Inventory Control Authority (FICA), will fairly distribute all waffles until the crisis has passed. In America, we will not allow the poor to go without waffles while the rich enjoy the profits of our collective production. Those who refuse to comply will be subject to a $2,500 tax and jail time unless they make under $250,000. It is not my intention to burden those families which are already suffering.

My fellow Americans, I know that through hard work, cooperation and unquestioning obedience, we will be able to survive this crisis together.

The President's speech was followed by a White House announcement of a new federal website, waffles.gov, to track the new initiatives. Fittingly, Vice President Biden will be responsible for this new and accurate communication tool. Obama has previously delegated communications responsibilities to the Vice President's office. FICA will be headed by waffle czar Bill Clinton, who is allegedly an Aunt Jemima brand loyalist.

GOP strategists have already announced their intention to dump as many waffles as possible into the Potomac River, calling for a Waffle Party to protest Obama's plan.

More New Math

Looks like Fox is at it again. I'd like to see these people compete on "Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?"Via The J-Walk Blog

New Math

Fox News Chicago has dispensed with the old rules of math. Check out their chart of 2012 GOP primary contenders.



Best part: "Source: Opinions"

Infrstructure Investment

Google just published its yearly Zeitgeist, a summary of trending search terms. Here's the graph Google produced for Venezuela:

Venezuela is suffering from drought and inadequate power supply, leading to intense rationing of water and electricity. Socialism does a great job of allocating capital for investment! If only the rich oil barons weren't hoarding all of the petroleum profits. Oh, wait...Chavez owns the oil now. And the electricity infrastructure.

One more thing: Comrade Chavez says real, dedicated Venezuelans take three minute showers to demonstrate their patriotism. (See second link)

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My Early Action applications are in

applied to college
senioritis setting in
cutting school today?

The Catholic Church is no friend of liberty

The culture of homosexuality is a culture of self-absorption because it does not value self-sacrifice. It is a glaring example of what John Paul II has called the culture of death. Islamic fundamentalists clearly understand the damage that homosexual behavior inflicts on a culture. That is why they repress such behavior by death. Their culture is anything but one of self-absorption. It may be brutal at times, but any culture that is able to produce wave after wave of suicide bombers (women as well as men) is a culture that at least knows how to value self-sacrifice.

~The Catholic Archdiocese of Agana (Guam), in response to bill in Guam legalizing domestic partnerships.

Repulsive and revolting.

Via The Volokh Conspiracy via The Pacific News Center (pdf warning)

Why I Admire Steve Jobs

Junior Achievement reports that 35% of teens selected Steve Jobs as their favorite Celebrity Entrepreneur. 61% of those respondents reported that they appreciated Jobs because he "made a difference in/improved people's lives or made the world a better place."

Well, I admire Steve Jobs because he has earned $5,000,000,000 for himself.

A Pretty Old Joke

What happens when a fly falls into a coffee cup?
The Italian - throws the cup and walks away in a fit of rage
The Frenchman - takes out the fly, and drinks the coffee
The Chinese - eats the fly and throws away the coffee
The Russian - drinks the coffee with the fly, since it was extra with no charge
The Israeli - sells the coffee to the Frenchman, the fly to the Chinese, buys himself a new cup of coffee and uses the extra money to invent a device that prevents flies from falling into coffee
The Palestinian - blames the Israeli for the fly falling into his coffee, protests the act of aggression to the UN, takes a loan from the European Union for a new cup of coffee, uses the money to purchase explosives and then blows up the coffee house where the Italian, the Frenchman, the Chinese, and the Russian are trying to explain to the Israeli why he should give away his cup of coffee to the Palestinian.

I'm Humbled

Guilty as charged. [Via XKCD]


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Only 173 days later

There is already a "grassroots" movement to repeal the 22nd Amendment and pave the way for Obama to run for a 3rd term and beyond. I think George Washington set a good example when he refused to run for a third term, because he realized the risks of stagnant government and messianic figures which could eventually morph into a monarchy or dictatorship. Now, I think that possiblity is indeed remote, but the amount of influence even a two term president can have is disturbing. FDR, who was elected to an unprecedented four terms, took the opportunity to reshape all three branches of government and fill them with his supporters, and we still feel the effects today.

Certainly, this entire issue is up for discussion, and should be rigorously debated. But my offhand reaction is that this is a terrible idea. Let's get through the first term first...I wouldn't want the American Republic to collapse into the American Empire. I'll never forgive Ceasar.

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Yes We Can

This is an exciting time for 2nd Amendment supporters throughout the country. Reason Magazine recently interviewed Alan Gura, the lead counsel for the defense in D.C. v. Heller. He explains the continued progress being made in federal courts throughout the country to protect 2nd Amendment rights.

Gura also mentions a recent decision by the Ninth Circuit that holds that the 2nd is actually incorporated against the states by the 14th's "Due Process" clause. Since other circuits have not accepted incorporation, this creates a 'circuit split' and increases the likelihood that the Supreme Court will agree to hear the case (Nordyke v. King).

I don't understand enough about the 14th amendment or its history within the courts to state on opinion on incorporation, though I am trying to learn more. Anyone care to share their thoughts or enlighten me?

Digits

12:43:56 7/8/9

SCOTUS Wrap-Up

Here's a useful little summary of some of the defining cases of this last Supreme Court session. Click.

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233 Years and Counting

Then and now:



Happy Birthday USA!

I'll try to keep updating this.

Valete,
Poplicola

Sources:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/US.html
http://www.measuringworth.org
http://inventors.about.com/library/inventors/blfarm4.htm
Wikipedia

My Favorite Time of Year

Not only is school over, but Supreme Court opinions are coming out nearly every day now!

Wishes for a happy retirement to Justice Souter.

Valete,
Poplicola

More Questions for your Congressional Delegates

When you call your representative and senators, ask them if they have actually read the entire cap-and-trade bill. The Enterprise Blog reports that the sponsors tacked on another 300 pages last night, increasing the size of the bill by 25%. I can't imagine how anyone could have possibly read the new additions in time for today's votes in the House.

This reminds me of the stimulus, which no one bothered reading either.

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Smoot-Hawley

Jim Lindgren over at the Volokh Conspiracy explains how the Waxman-Markey Cap-and-Trade energy bill is the worst and most dangerous piece of legislation since the Great Depression. Disclosure: the next two paragraphs are heavily borrowed from Jim's post.

A quick refresher: Smoot-Hawley was passed in 1930 as a backstop to sliding US domestic production. The bill imposed huge tariffs on thousands of foreign products, in order to make US goods more competitive. Other countries struck back by imposing their own tariffs. In the end, gross US international commerce was cut in half, and global trade suffered. It is likely that this bill helped deepen the recession. By removing many of the comparative advantages of manufacturing between countries, the bill reduced global efficiency, which had enjoyed substantial gains during the 1920's as trade boomed.

Waxman-Markey effectively does the same thing. By rationing handing out emissions credits to favored companies, it makes US goods more expensive. Realizing this, the bill's sponsors included a provision which approximates the cost the bill would have on a foreign good if it had been produced in the US and assigns it a tariff of that amount. Not only will the US engage in a new tariff war, but the country will also ship the remnants of its industrial sector overseas. The result: Americans will be poorer and less competitive. Even worse, domestic emissions reductions will be almost insignificant on a global scale, since states like China, Brazil and India are only beginning to industrialize.

EDIT: I speculate that in the short-term, this bill might actually increase America's dependence on foreign oil, because the US will be discouraged from using coal, which is dirtier, though domestic and abundant.

If you're interested in trying to stop this bill from making it through Congress (after which Obama will undoubtedly sign it), here are some talking points for our Senators and Representatives:

1. If you live in a farm state, explain how Waxman-Markey will be the death knell of the agricultural sector.
2. If you live in a manufacturing state, explain how the bill will kill the industrial sector.
3. For New Jerseyans and others with large refining capabilities, like Texas, explain as above. Also mention that the bill continues federal support for ethanol subsidies, strengthening an anti-environmental practice while depressing traditional gasoline demand.
4. Talk about Smoot-Hawley and your concerns for the successful recovery of the US and global economies.
5. EDIT: Pennsylvanians, talk about the coal industry!
   

Good luck! If anyone tries this, please comment below to let me know how it went.

Everyday Freedom

Just a moment ago, I was searching for Milton Friedman's Capitalism and Freedom on Amazon (I've borrowed the book and want to add it to my personal library). I suddenly realized, while clicking through pages filled with anarchist pamphlets and libertarian treatises, how wonderful freedom of expression and freedom of belief are. It pains me to think of the dictatorial suppression so prevalent in the world. Still, with the power of social networking tools like Twitter becoming more apparent every day, perhaps Prof. Friedman's dream of a free world will be realized some day. Here's to a desperate wish...

In allegiance with the freedom fighters in Iran, and around the globe,
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