Looking forward to Nov 2010

James Pethokoukis predicts the results of this year's midterm election (I can't believe it's already been more than a year since the last federal elections).

1. Remember this simple formula: Unemployment drives presidential approval numbers, and presidential approval numbers drive midterm election results.

2. President Barack Obama’s approval numbers are hovering just a tick below 50 percent. Since 1962, the average House midterm loss for the president’s party when his approval is sub-50 percent is 41 seats. The GOP needs 40 to take the House.

3. And make no mistake, the December unemployment numbers were bad both economically and politically. The 85,000 job loss was worse than expected and will be played that way the media. The continuation of double-digit unemployment also resonates with voters. And not a in a good way.

4. Then will come the second-take stories that will notice the shrinking labor force, which dropped by nearly 700,000 from November. Had it stayed stable from last month, the jobless rate would have been 10.4 percent. Had it stayed stable since August, the jobless rate would be 11 percent!

5. But wait, there’s more! The U-6 rate rate which combines the basic jobless rate, discouraged workers, part-timers-who-would-rather-be-full-tim ers climbed to 17.3 percent. And the average duration of unemployment rose to a record high 29.1 weeks.

6. Also, there is every indication that as the slowly growing economy eventually draws workers back into the labor force, the jobless rate will creep up to new highs. (Big companies remain cautious about hiring, and small biz remains under pressure due to tight capital markets.) The validity of the Obama recovery plan will seriously be cast in doubt.

7. The sickly labor market will also make it that much harder for the White House and Hill Dems to celebrate what is likely to be a brisk upcoming GDP report in the 4-5 percent range. That seems like an abstract number compared to the unemployment rate.

8. Combine a weak labor market – which may appear to be getting worse to voters – with the moribund housing market and rising gas prices, and you have a toxic triple threat that will be poisonous to Democratic incumbents and further drain Obama’s political capital.

9. Also, watch how these numbers play with Senate and House Dems thinking about resigning like Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan. A big improvement in the jobs numbers might have reassured any worriers that 2010 might not be as tough as some currently think. Now it looks a bit more like the worst fears of Democrats might be realized: losing the House and a half-dozen or more Senate seats.

Item 6 is particularly insightful. Despite the fact that more people will find jobs, the unemployment rate is unlikely to decline significantly anytime soon. The Federal Reserve, in its most recent FOMC minutes, was similarly pessimistic about the medium-term outlook in the labor market.

Save the Press!

Why is this crap newsworthy?

President Barack Obama, family and friends visited sea animals and the beach during their weekend Hawaii vacation activities.

Obama, his daughters and his half-sister spent about an hour Saturday at Sea Life Park, a marine center east of Honolulu in Waimanalo. Sea Life Park has animals including dolphins, sea lions, penguins, stingrays and sea turtles.

Furthermore, why did it make the front page of Google News?

The National Waffle Shortage, a parody

There's a crisis in America. A national waffle shortage plagues the nation. Kellogs, the maker of America's favorite frozen breakfast has been forced to close both of their national Eggo factories and do not expect to produce any more waffles until sometime next year.

In a special address to the nation, President Obama announced the creation of a Strategic Waffle Reserve to address the shortage.

There are those who advocate inaction and a passive response to this challenge. There are naysayers who profess that there are enough waffles to go around. These are falsehoods designed to mislead the American people. How can we leave millions of our children without basic necessities? I cannot imagine Sasha and Melia going to school without their Eggos. Let me be clear: my administration intends to take bold action in response to this threat. I will not allow our national economic recovery to be held hostage by a waffle shortage, nor will I allow our seniors to eat hard, unappetizing generic waffles. I affirm my intention of spreading these waffles around. There are those who offer a false choice between economic growth, and mutual aid and security. There are those who are skeptical of my administration's ability to get anything done. Well, allow me to be clear and frank with the American people: I have a plan.

First, I am announcing the creation of a Strategic Waffle Reserve to stockpile waffles to preclude the possibility of such a devastating shortage in the future. This great nation will never find itself caught unaware ever again.

Second, and with regret, I am announcing the purchase of 80% of Kellogs by the federal government. The American people cannot allow the incompetence and recklessness of a few food executives to devastate the middle class. I will ensure that Kellogs has a quick and painless bankruptcy that will strengthen its ability to waffle and punish its irresponsible creditors. Allow me to be clear: the United States government is not interested in owning food companies.

Third, I am announcing an executive order that will ban the personal production, consumption or ownership of Eggo waffles one year from today. A new federal agency, the Federal Inventory Control Authority (FICA), will fairly distribute all waffles until the crisis has passed. In America, we will not allow the poor to go without waffles while the rich enjoy the profits of our collective production. Those who refuse to comply will be subject to a $2,500 tax and jail time unless they make under $250,000. It is not my intention to burden those families which are already suffering.

My fellow Americans, I know that through hard work, cooperation and unquestioning obedience, we will be able to survive this crisis together.

The President's speech was followed by a White House announcement of a new federal website, waffles.gov, to track the new initiatives. Fittingly, Vice President Biden will be responsible for this new and accurate communication tool. Obama has previously delegated communications responsibilities to the Vice President's office. FICA will be headed by waffle czar Bill Clinton, who is allegedly an Aunt Jemima brand loyalist.

GOP strategists have already announced their intention to dump as many waffles as possible into the Potomac River, calling for a Waffle Party to protest Obama's plan.

More New Math

Looks like Fox is at it again. I'd like to see these people compete on "Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?"Via The J-Walk Blog

New Math

Fox News Chicago has dispensed with the old rules of math. Check out their chart of 2012 GOP primary contenders.



Best part: "Source: Opinions"

Infrstructure Investment

Google just published its yearly Zeitgeist, a summary of trending search terms. Here's the graph Google produced for Venezuela:

Venezuela is suffering from drought and inadequate power supply, leading to intense rationing of water and electricity. Socialism does a great job of allocating capital for investment! If only the rich oil barons weren't hoarding all of the petroleum profits. Oh, wait...Chavez owns the oil now. And the electricity infrastructure.

One more thing: Comrade Chavez says real, dedicated Venezuelans take three minute showers to demonstrate their patriotism. (See second link)

Poplicola

My Early Action applications are in

applied to college
senioritis setting in
cutting school today?